STAT/06/23
28 February 2006
January 2006 (new reference year 2005=100 for the HICP1) Euro-zone annual inflation up to 2.4% EU25 up to 2.2%
Euro-zone annual inflation was 2.4% in January 20062, up from 2.2% in December 2005. A year earlier the rate was 1.9%. Monthly inflation was -0.4% in January 2006.
EU253 annual inflation was 2.2% in January 2006, up from 2.1% in December 2005. A year earlier the rate was 2.0%. Monthly inflation was -0.4% in January 2006.
EICP4 annual inflation was 2.2% in January 2006.
These figures come from Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities.
Inflation in the Member States
In January 2006, the lowest annual rates were observed in Poland (0.9%), Sweden (1.1%), Austria (1.5%) and the Netherlands (1.8%), and the highest rates in Latvia (7.6%), Estonia (4.7%), Spain (4.2%), Luxembourg and Slovakia (both 4.1%). Compared with December 2005, annual inflation rose in fourteen Member States, remained stable in three and fell in seven.
The lowest 12-month averages5 up to January 2006 were in Finland6 and Sweden (both 0.9%), the Netherlands (1.5%) and the Czech Republic (1.7%); the highest were in Latvia (7.0%), Estonia (4.2%), Luxembourg (3.9%) and Spain (3.5%).
Euro-zone
The main components with the highest annual rates in January 2006 were housing and transport (both 5.5%), alcohol and tobacco and education (both 2.5%), while the lowest annual rates were observed for communications (-2.8%), clothing (-0.8%) and recreation and culture (0.0%). Concerning the detailed sub-indices, fuels for transport had the largest upward impact on the headline rate (+0.51 percentage points), followed by heating oil (+0.20) and gas (+0.17), while garments (-0.19) and telecommunications (-0.16) had the biggest downward impacts.
The main components with the highest monthly rates were housing (1.2%), food and transport (both 0.6%), and the lowest were clothing (-8.1%) and recreation and culture (-2.2%). In particular, fuels for transport (+0.12 percentage points) and gas (+0.07) had the largest upward impacts, while garments (-0.47) and package holidays (-0.20) had the biggest downward impacts.
Annual inflation (%) in January 2006 in ascending order
Euro-zone Member States
FI6 AT NL DE IT FR Euro-zone IE PT BE EL LU ES Dec 05 1.1p 1.5p 1.8p 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4p 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.0 4.1 4.2 EU Member States outside the euro-zone
PL SE UK7 CY DK EU253 CZ MT HU SI LT SK EE LV 0.9 1.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2p 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 3.5 4.1 4.7 7.6 Inflation rates in %, measured by HICPs
Annual rates 12 Month average rates5 Monthly rates Jan 06 Jan 05 Dec 05 Dec 04 Nov 05 Nov 04 Oct 05 Oct 04 Jan 05 Jan 04 Jan 06-05 Jan 05-04 Jan 06 Dec 05 Belgium 2.8 2.8 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.6 -1.3 Germany 2.1 2.1 2.2r 2.3r 1.6 2.0 -0.6 Greece 3.0 3.5 3.4 3.7 4.2 3.4 -0.2 Spain 4.2 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.1 3.5 -0.5 France 2.3 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.6 2.0 -0.1 Ireland 2.5 1.9 2.2 2.6r 2.1 2.2 -0.5 Italy 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.0 2.2 -0.9 Luxembourg 4.1 3.4 3.6 5.0 2.9r 3.9 -0.4 Netherlands 1.8p 2.0r 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.5p 0.2p Austria 1.5p 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.0p -0.1p Portugal 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.0 2.2 -0.4 Finland6 : 1.1p 1.0p 0.8p -0.2p 0.9p : Euro-zone (MUICP) 2.4p 2.2p 2.3p 2.5p 1.9p 2.2p -0.4p Czech Republic 2.4 1.9 2.2 2.4r 1.5 1.7 1.1 Denmark 2.0 2.2 1.8r 1.9 0.8 1.8 -0.4 Estonia 4.7 3.6 4.0 4.5 4.2 4.2 0.8 Cyprus 2.0 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.8 2.0 -1.7 Latvia 7.6 7.1 7.6r 7.7 6.7 7.0 1.1 Lithuania 3.5 3.0 2.9r 3.0 2.8 2.7 0.5 Hungary 2.5 3.3 3.3 3.1 4.0r 3.4 0.0 Malta 2.4 3.4 4.3 3.0 1.9 2.6 -1.6 Poland 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.6 3.8 1.9 0.1 Slovenia 2.6 2.4 2.1 3.2 2.3 2.5 -0.3 Slovakia 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.2 2.9 1.9 Sweden 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.9 -0.7 United Kingdom7 1.9 1.9r 2.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 -0.5 EU253 2.2p 2.1p 2.3p 2.4p 2.0p 2.2p -0.4p EICP4 2.2p 2.1p 2.3p 2.4p 2.0p 2.2p -0.4p EU15 2.3p 2.2p 2.3p 2.4p 1.8p 2.2p -0.5p Iceland 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.5 2.6 1.3 -0.1 Norway 1.8 2.0 1.8r 1.8r 1.0r 1.5 -0.3 EEA (EEAICP) 2.2p 2.1p 2.2p 2.4p 2.0p 2.2p -0.4p Source: Eurostat p: Provisionalr: Revised
Note: Annual inflation in the USA was 4.0% in January 2006 (national CPI, not strictly comparable to the HICPs).
Euro-zone inflation rates in % for main components, measured by HICPs
Weight used in 2006 Annual rates 12 month average rates5 Monthly rates Euro-zone (MUICP) Jan 06 Jan 05 Dec 05 Dec 04 Nov 05 Nov 04 Oct 05 Oct 04 Jan 05 Jan 04 Jan 06-05 Jan 05-04 Jan 06 Dec 05 00 All-items 1000.0p 2.4p 2.2p 2.3p 2.5p 1.9p 2.2p -0.4p 01 Food 152.7p 1.7p 1.4p 1.1p 1.0p -0.1p 0.8p 0.6p 02 Alcohol and tobacco 40.0p 2.5p 2.7p 5.7p 5.6p 7.5p 4.5p 0.0p 03 Clothing 72.7p -0.8p 0.3p 0.3p 0.4p 0.8p 0.0p -8.1p 04 Housing 153.5p 5.5p 5.1p 5.0p 5.0p 3.7p 4.9p 1.2p 05 Household equipment 75.7p 0.7p 0.8p 0.8p 0.7p 1.0p 0.8p -0.3p 06 Health 40.3p 1.2p 1.5p 1.5p 1.5p 3.0p 2.0p 0.1p 07 Transport 157.1p 5.5p 4.5p 4.2p 5.4p 3.2p 4.6p 0.6p 08 Communication 29.5p -2.8p -2.8p -2.6p -2.9p -2.5pr -2.3p 0.0p 09 Recreation and culture 94.7p 0.0p 0.1p 0.1p 0.2p 0.0p -0.1p -2.2p 10 Education 9.7p 2.5p 2.4p 2.3p 2.5p 3.4p 3.0p 0.4p 11 Hotels and restaurants 92.2p 2.4p 2.4p 2.3p 2.5p 2.6p 2.5p -0.4p 12 Miscellaneous 81.8p 1.8p 2.0p 1.9p 1.9p 1.9p 1.8p 0.3p All-items excl. energy 908.0p 1.4p 1.4p 1.5p 1.5p 1.6p 1.4p -0.8p -excl. energy, FoodAlcTob* 715.3p 1.2p 1.4p 1.4p 1.4p 1.6p 1.4p -1.1p -excl. energy, unproc. food 833.7p 1.3p 1.4p 1.5p 1.5p 1.8p 1.5p -0.9p -excl. energy, seas. goods 870.6p 1.3p 1.4p 1.5p 1.5p 1.8p 1.4p -0.9p -excl. tobacco 974.9p 2.4p 2.2p 2.1p 2.3p 1.7p 2.1p -0.5p Energy 92.0p 13.6p 11.2p 10.0p 12.1p 6.2p 10.7p 2.4p FoodAlcTob* 192.8p 1.9p 1.7p 2.2p 1.9p 1.5p 1.6p 0.5p Source: Eurostat * FoodAlcTob: Food, alcohol and tobaccop: Provisional r: Revised
Euro-zone sub-indices with most important impacts
Weight (‰) 2006 Rate (%) Impact (percentage points) COICOP January 06 / January 05 07.22 Fuels for transport 41.7 15.2p 0.51 04.53 Heating oil 8.8 28.9p 0.20 04.52 Gas 15.0 14.1p 0.17 04.55 District heating 5.2 20.4p 0.08 02.2 Tobacco 25.1 4.0p 0.04 01.15 Oils and fats 5.5 8.0p 0.03 03.21/2 Footwear 14.7 -0.6p -0.04 01.14 Milk, cheese and eggs 21.7 0.4p -0.05 09.13 IT equipment 4.0 -10.9p -0.05 09.11 Audio-visual equipment 5.2 -8.6p -0.06 08.2/3 Telecommunications 27.5 -3.3p -0.16 03.12 Garments 53.5 -1.2p -0.19 January 06 / December 05 07.22 Fuels for transport 41.7 2.3p 0.12 04.52 Gas 15.0 4.2p 0.07 01.17 Vegetables 14.6 3.7p 0.06 04.51 Electricity 20.5 2.4p 0.06 11.11 Restaurants and Cafes 68.4 0.3p 0.06 04.11/2 Rents 63.2 0.3p 0.05 12.32 Other personal effects 5.7 -3.2p -0.02 07.33 Air transport 5.2 -8.2p -0.04 11.2 Accommodation services 16.2 -4.1p -0.06 03.21/2 Footwear 14.7 -7.5p -0.10 09.6 Package holidays 14.1 -14.6p -0.20 03.12 Garments 53.5 -8.7p -0.47 Source: Eurostat
Measures of inflation
The annual rate measures the price change between the current month and the same month of the previous year. This measure is responsive to recent changes in price levels but can be influenced by one-off effects in either month.
The 12-month average rate5 overcomes this volatility by comparing average Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs) in the latest 12 months to the average of the previous 12 months. This measure is less sensitive to transient changes in prices.
The monthly rate compares price levels between the two latest months. Although up-to-date, it can be affected by seasonal and other effects.
The impact of a particular component measures the change in the headline inflation due to the inclusion of that component in the HICP. The impact takes account of both the weight and whether the inflation for that component is higher or lower than the all-items inflation rate. For example, the impact of ‘tobacco’ is equal to the difference between the all-items inflation rate and the rate for ‘all-items excluding tobacco’. Impacts are not strictly additive.
HICPs designed for international comparison
Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs) are harmonized inflation figures required under Article 121 of the Treaty of Amsterdam (109j of the Treaty on European Union). They are designed for international comparison of consumer price inflation. The focus is on quality and comparability among the indices of different countries as well as on their relative movements.
Price changes as measured by the HICPs, the Monetary Union Index of Consumer Prices (MUICP), the European Index of Consumer Prices (EICP4) and the European Economic Area Index of Consumer Prices (EEAICP) are used as measures of inflation in the Member States, in the euro-zone, in the European Union, and in the European Economic Area.
The MUICP is used by, among others, the European Central Bank (ECB) as a main indicator for monetary policy management for the euro-zone8.
The Member States’ HICPs are supplied by the National Statistical Institutes; the MUICP, EICP and EEAICP are compiled by Eurostat. The HICP is computed as an annual chain index allowing weights to be changed each year. HICP aggregates are calculated as weighted averages of the HICPs using the weights of the countries and sub-indices concerned. The weight of a country is its share of the household final monetary consumption expenditure in the euro-zone total. For the MUICP this is expressed in euro, for the EICP and the EEAICP it is expressed in purchasing power standards. The MUICP is treated as a single entity within the EICP and EEAICP starting from 1999.
Additional information
More information9 on HICPs can be obtained from the monthly publication Statistics in focus, Economy and Finance, Harmonized indices of consumer prices. About 100 MUICP, EICP, EEAICP and HICP sub-indices with corresponding weights are available in Eurostat’s database.
Future release dates
Provisional publication dates for the coming months are:
Index for MUICP flash estimates HICP News Releases February 2006 1 March 2006 16 March 2006 March 2006 31 March 2006 20 April 2006 April 2006 28 April 2006 17 May 2006 Starting in January 2006 the Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices are compiled on the basis of the new common index reference period 2005=100, as laid down in the Commission Regulation 1708/2005 (Official Journal L 274, 20.10.2005). The re-referenced series replace the old ones based on 1996=100 whose publication is discontinued. The only exception is the all-items index which for the moment is still available in Eurostat website in the old reference year. All other 1996=100 based HICPs are only available on request. The HICP country weights for 2006 and a summary table with revisions of historical inflation rates in the period from January 1996 to December 2005 are presented in an Annex (for more information on the 2005=100 reference year and new rounding rules, see Eurostat News Release 146/2005 - 16 November 2005). The MUICP flash estimate for January 2006, published on 3 February 2006, was 2.4%. EU25: Belgium (BE), the Czech Republic (CZ), Denmark (DK), Germany (DE), Estonia (EE), Greece (EL), Spain (ES), France (FR), Ireland (IE), Italy (IT), Cyprus (CY), Latvia (LV), Lithuania (LT), Luxembourg (LU), Hungary (HU), Malta (MT), the Netherlands (NL), Austria (AT), Poland (PL), Portugal (PT), Slovenia (SI), Slovakia (SK), Finland (FI), Sweden (SE) and the United Kingdom (UK). The EICP (EICP=’European Index of Consumer Prices’ as defined in Council Regulation (EC) No 2494/95 of 23 October 1995) is the official EU aggregate. It covers 15 Member States until April 2004 and 25 Member States starting from May 2004. The ten new Member States are integrated into the EICP starting from May 2004 using a chain index formula. Measure used to determine price stability in Convergence reports of 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004 by the Commission to the Council. Finland has recently provided to Eurostat revised HICP data for the period from January 2005 to December 2005. That data arrived too late to be used for this release and it is currently being assessed by Eurostat. HICP data for January 2005 onwards for Finland should therefore be regarded as provisional. For January 2006, Eurostat estimates have been used for Finland in order to compute the euro-zone, EU and EEA indices, and the Finnish 12 month average rate. The method used by the UK to re-reference to 2005=100 is different from that used by all other EU and EEA countries in that the UK has used unrounded index levels for rescaling and computed inflation rates from the unrounded re-referenced index series. The UK decided at a very late stage to use this method. Until the necessary controls are in place to ensure that the same data are published by Eurostat and ONS, Eurostat will only release the all-items index level and inflation rates for the UK. Eurostat applied the harmonized rescaling method (see footnote 1) to UK data for calculating EU and EEA aggregates. See ECB press release, 8 May 2003. For technical notes on HICPs see: Eurostat News Release 21/97, 5 March 1997, Harmonizing the way EU measures inflation and Eurostat Memo 8/98, 4 May 1998, New monetary union index of consumer prices (MUICP), Eurostat Memo 02/00, 18 February 2000, Improved EU Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices: Extended coverage and earlier release dates for the HICP, and HICP short guide for users. Further details can be found in the Compendium of HICP reference documents - (2/2001/B/5). The HICP Short Guide for Users, which provides essential information for all users, is available on the Eurostat website.
Issued by: Eurostat Press Office Philippe BAUTIER BECH Building L-2920 LUXEMBOURG Tel: +352-4301-33 444 Fax: +352-4301-35 349 eurostat-pressoffice@ec.europa.eu For further information on Methodology: João LIBÓRIO Tel: +352-4301-38 137 Fax: +352-4301-33 989 estat-hicp-methods@ec.europa.eu Eurostat News Releases on the Internet: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ ANNEX
HICP country weights for 2006
MUICP EICP EEAICP Belgium 33.60 Germany 287.48 Greece 28.70 Spain 119.62 France 202.98 Ireland 13.40 Italy 190.51 Luxembourg 2.68 Netherlands 52.18 Austria 31.13 Portugal 21.89 Finland 15.83 Euro-zone (MUICP) 1000.00 714.88 707.05 Czech Republic 13.31 13.16 Denmark 10.71 10.6 Estonia 1.42 1.40 Cyprus 1.82 1.80 Latvia 2.08 2.06 Lithuania 3.76 3.72 Hungary 12.08 11.94 Malta 0.74 0.74 Poland 42.68 42.21 Slovenia 3.19 3.16 Slovakia 5.53 5.47 Sweden 17.12 16.93 United Kingdom 170.67 168.80 EU25 (EICP) 1000.00 Iceland 0.68 Norway 10.28 EEA (EEAICP) 1000.00 Percentages of historical HICP inflation rates which have been revised following re-referencing, 1996-2005 Starting this month, Euro-zone, EU and EEA index levels will be published to 2 decimal places. Many Member States have also opted to publish HICP index levels at 2 decimal places. HICPs published with: Two decimals One decimal Annual rate Monthly rate Annual rate Monthly rate Euro-zone 3.0 1.5 EU25 3.6 3.7 EICP 3.7 3.5 EU15 3.6 3.6 EEA 3.6 3.6 Belgium 2.9 1.3 Estonia 4.4 3.0 Spain 3.4 1.7 France 3.0 1.2 Cyprus 3.6 1.7 Latvia 4.1 2.6 Lithuania 3.5 2.2 Luxembourg 3.4 1.5 Hungary 3.9 3.0 Malta 2.5 1.0 Netherlands 3.0 2.0 Austria 2.9 1.5 Portugal 3.2 2.1 Slovenia 3.7 2.8 Slovakia 4.6 3.1 Finland* : : Sweden 3.3 1.8 Iceland 3.2 1.9 Czech Republic 33.6 22.1 Denmark 33.9 21.1 Germany 31.5 16.4 Greece 37.2 26.3 Ireland 37.7 27.2 Italy 35.0 22.2 Poland 42.3 35.3 United Kingdom* : : Norway 35.7 24.3 The table counts the revisions of historical inflation rates on average as a result of rescaling HICPs to 2005=100. Inflation rates have in general been revised by 0.1 percentage points, but in some cases the revision is up to 0.3 percentage points. The table shows that countries publishing at 2 decimal places have experienced fewer revisions.
*The UK publishes index levels at one decimal, but computes inflation rates from unrounded re-referenced HICPs (see footnote 7). Concerning Finland see footnote 6.
