The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area decreased slightly in January after an upturn in December. The BCI has been above its long term average since September last year. Despite the marginal decline in January, the indicator remains considerably above the low point reached in the second quarter of 2005. The decrease of the BCI was due to a decline in industry managers’ assessment of the production trend observed in recent months. The assessment of export order books remained stable while that of total order books improved somewhat. Also, production expectations for the months ahead grew. The managers’ assessment of stocks of finished products improved marginally.

[Graphic in PDF & Word format]

The BCI is based on a factor analysis of the euro area aggregate balances (seasonally adjusted) of five of the monthly questions in the industry survey (only employment and selling-price expectations are excluded).

[Graphic in PDF & Word format] Full details of the Business Climate Indicator are available on the Europa website:

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/indicators/businessclimate_en.htm

The next BCI Results are due to be published on 28 February 2006.

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