STAT/08/14 31 January 2008
Flash estimate – January 2008 Euro area inflation estimated at 3.2%
Euro area1 annual inflation2 is expected to be 3.2% in January 2008 according to a flash estimate issued by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities. It was 3.1% in December 20073.
Computation of flash estimates
Euro area inflation is measured by the Monetary Union Index of Consumer Prices (MUICP). To compute the MUICP flash estimates, Eurostat uses early price information relating to the reference month from Member States for which data are available4 as well as early information about energy prices.
The flash estimation procedure for the MUICP combines historical information with partial information on price developments in the most recent months to give a total index for the euro area. No detailed breakdown is available. Experience has shown the procedure to be reliable (17 times exactly anticipating the inflation rate and 7 times differing by 0.1 over the last two years). Further information can be found in Eurostat News Release 113/2001 of 5 November 2001.
Future provisional publication dates
Index for MUICP flash estimates News release on euro area, EU and Member States January 2008 - 29 February 2008 February 2008 3 March 2008 14 March 2008 March 2008 31 March 2008 16 April 2008 The Member States of the euro area are Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Slovenia and Finland. Annual inflation is the price change between the current month and the same month of the previous year. See News Release 8/2008 of 16 January 2008. The MUICP flash estimate usually includes early price information representing approximately 95% of the euro area total consumption expenditure weight (see News Release 53/2006 of 28 April 2006). However, this month, less data is available than is usually the case. In addition, the ongoing rebasing of the German CPI may affect the German HICP. As a consequence, the euro area flash estimate for January 2008 is more uncertain than usual. Issued by Eurostat Press Office Tim ALLEN Tel: +352-4301-33 444 mailto:eurostat-pressoffice@ec.europa.eu For further information on data: Colin STEWART Tel: +352-4301-38 137 mailto:estat-hicp-methods@ec.europa.eu Eurostat News Releases on the Internet: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat Selected Principal European Economic Indicators: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/euroindicators
